Today, I am afraid there is nothing more disturbing for Europeans than the bird flu that broke out in Russia more than half a month ago. Fortunately, the news agency of Russia's Novosibirsk State Department issued a news on August 8, saying that the bird flu epidemic in the state has already been initially controlled, and that other states and border areas where bird flu has occurred have not reported any further epidemic expansion. The nervous nerves of people seem to be finally able to get a moment of peace, but can these ups and downs of global outbreaks be effectively controlled and whether bird flu will spread in humans? The latest research results in the United States and the United Kingdom finally gave everybody hope. Scientists said that as long as the measures are properly implemented, the bird flu virus mutation will not cause a major human influenza outbreak. In recent years, the H5N1 bird flu virus has ravaged Asia. Thousands of birds, including poultry and wild birds, have either died or been killed. The virus also caused infections in humans, leading to 51 deaths in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. In Southeast Asia and China, the H5N1 virus has caused a devastating impact on a large number of poultry farms in which more than 100 people have been infected with bird flu. So far, humans have been exposed to bird flu in birds infected with viruses. Scientists believe that the H5N1 virus is rapidly mutating. Once a strain that can be transmitted from person to person occurs, it may trigger a global The new influenza outbreak caused millions of deaths. Scientists from the United States and the United Kingdom have recently published their latest research findings on bird flu in the online editions of Nature and Science. Both scientists believe that governments must allocate antiviral drugs scientifically and take quarantine measures early. , and pay attention to the role of vaccination, so that it is possible to control the outbreak of new influenza. Taking the current bird flu outbreak in Russia as an example, some experts believe that next year migratory birds may bring back the bird flu virus. Therefore, there may be an outbreak of bird flu in these areas next year. In addition, experts are concerned that the H5N1 virus causing the bird flu outbreak in Russia may be transmitted by migratory birds to the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, which may spread the outbreak. In response to this situation, in one of the studies, a team led by Neil M. Ferguson, a scientist at the Imperial College in London, simulated the bird flu found in the border areas of Thailand and neighboring Southeast Asian countries. Infected scene. In the computer model, researchers considered the effectiveness of antiviral drug treatment, social and geographic factors that affect drug distribution and efficacy, measures that the government may take to isolate and limit travel. Researchers in the "Nature" magazine pointed out that if you use a total of 3 million course of antiviral drugs, and the combined use of isolation and other means, you can basically control the spread of new influenza. If we can treat every infected person and their contact population, close local schools and workplaces, etc., the probability of controlling the spread of flu can reach 90%. After the outbreak of the bird flu epidemic in Russia, scientists worried that because there are a large number of poultry and birds used in the market to trade and lack a sound grass-roots management mechanism, Russia is unlikely to stop the bird flu virus from going west. Spreading, this means that bird flu is likely to appear in Europe. In view of the possibility of avian flu epidemic in densely populated areas, scientists at the Emory University in Atlanta, USA, Ailon Kini and others simulated a scenario of new influenza in a rural area of ​​500,000 people in Southeast Asia and considered the population in the local community. The flow conditions. The control measures they included included the distribution of antiviral drugs to the patient's social relations population; the immunization of even the vaccines for other types of influenza as soon as possible before the outbreak worsened; isolation of the patient's home and neighboring communities. According to data published in the "Science" online edition, if the public health agencies comprehensively use the above-mentioned prevention and control measures within two weeks after the first new influenza case is reported, the incidence rate can be controlled to about one thousandth. In addition, even if the vaccinated vaccine is not suitable for the new influenza, inoculation of half of the local population can greatly enhance the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures. Scientists pointed out that to control the outbreak of flu, it is necessary to adopt various measures in combination, and any single control measure is useless. Public health agencies must make more efforts. In particular, the storage and use of antiviral drugs is critical, and international cooperation is also essential.
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