Pharmaceutical industry: policies have little effect on adjustments to drug prices

We mainly conducted statistical analysis on the price adjustment of medicines with uniform pricing. The unified pricing of drugs involved a total of 363 specifications for 85 drug types, 91 of which were first priced. The types of drugs involved in price reduction are mainly hormones, endocrine regulation and neurological drugs. The therapeutic areas involved include diabetes drugs, growth hormone drugs, osteoporosis drugs, menopausal drugs, and Parkinson's drugs. Among them, we noticed that most of the last adjustments/prices of endocrine-adjusted drugs and hormone drugs were in 2006.

The drop is between 1% and 60%. The NDRC's price adjustments have increased the price cuts for drugs with high daily expenses and reduced or no price cuts for drugs with low daily expenses. The purpose is to reduce the burden on patients and ensure the production and supply of relatively inexpensive drugs. From the price reduction point of view, the largest decline in more than 60%, the smallest decline in the 1% or so.

Diabetes drugs involved more; the overall impact of the price adjustment is smaller. Overall, we believe that the price adjustment involved a relatively narrow range. Excluding diabetes drugs such as acarbose, insulin, and metformin, as well as growth hormone, the rest of the drugs did not include varieties that could have a significant impact on the performance of listed companies.

The price-intensive adjustment period has come. The Development and Reform Commission issued its first price reduction notification this year on March 7, 2011, reducing the maximum retail prices of some antibiotics and circulatory system drugs that are mainly used to treat infections and cardiovascular diseases, involving a total of more than 160 drugs and more than 1,000 species. Product regulations. The adjusted price is reduced by an average of 21% from the current stipulated price, and it is expected to reduce the burden on the people by nearly 10 billion yuan each year.

The price adjustment is the second price adjustment. We clearly stated in our 2011 annual strategy and 2011 medium-term strategy that from the perspective of China’s current health care reform and the political situation, it will start at present and it will start in the next two to three years. It is the period of intensive adjustment of drug prices in China. The pharmaceutical industry will face relatively large price reduction risks, especially cardiovascular and antibiotics, anti-tumor and endocrine drugs.

Investment strategy and risk tips. We maintain our view on the medium-term strategy for 2011. In the second half of the year, we will focus on promising varieties with stable growth performance, strong cost control capabilities and less impact on price adjustments, including Renhe Pharmaceuticals, Tasly, Yunnan Baiyao, and Tong Ren Tang. The main risks include rising cost rates and a lower-than-expected improvement in the essential drug system.

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