[American Bull Fertilizers Group Reprinted] - The domestic fertilizer market is sluggish and exports of urea to the city will not work.

From July, the fertilizer market prices have been falling all the way. In the season of fertilizer use in July and August, urea price should have been at the highest level in the year. However, due to the successive production of new production capacity, the implementation of the state's light storage fertilizer supply, and the strict implementation of strict export control policies, the domestic supply and demand relationship has been changed and the fertilizer prices in peak season Do not rise and fall, the average fell 200 to 300 yuan / ton. After entering the fall fertilizer season, the price of urea rose slightly, but it still fell sharply compared to the same period of last year, and pulled down other varieties of fertilizer. The market price of diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer for winter wheat planting was also low. Due to the downturn in the fertilizer market, manufacturers are forced to lower their ex-factory prices again and again, and many companies are currently in a situation where production is guaranteed or even lost.

Faced with the dual pressures of rising raw material prices and the depressed domestic market, many companies have reoriented their sights on the international market and demanded that the country reduce its provisional tax rate on urea exports. However, the author believes that, based on the following reasons, the country is unlikely to make major adjustments to the fertilizer export policy in the near future: First, to ensure the stability of the overall policy; Second, the country's provisional tariff on urea exports is a macro-control fertilizer for the past two years. One of the most effective policies implemented by the market has played a positive role in securing supply in the domestic market. Third, the export of fertilizers with high energy consumption, high material consumption, and high pollution is at the expense of domestic resources, energy, and future living environment. The development and economic interests are not worth the candle. This is especially true in the current environment of China's foreign trade surplus further expanding. In fact, according to the author's understanding, the relevant state departments have repeatedly stressed that the seasonal tentative tariff policy on urea exports will not be adjusted.
According to another analysis, the current trend of the international fertilizer market is also not conducive to China's urea exports. The demand and prices of traditional fertilizer importing countries around China have all declined to varying degrees. According to the FMB (Ferment Markets Guide) offer for offshore Chinese bagged urea offered in October at 220-225 U.S. dollars per ton, after deducting 15% of the tariffs and other expenses, how much profits can the company earn?

It seems that it is unlikely that it will be feasible to count on the export of urea to come to the city. To change the current downturn in the domestic fertilizer market, we must find reasons from the company itself. Wang Wenshan, vice chairman of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, made a point: In response to the recent improvement in the market, many companies have invested heavily to expand production. Low-level redundant construction has increased the nation’s new urea production capacity by more than 40% of the total domestic supply capacity. . With the new production capacity gradually put into production, urea companies will have to swallow their own kind of bitter fruit.

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